Annoyed by a debate started between Andi Bushati and the leaders of some new political forces, I thought to add a missing perspective to their discussion.
The upcoming electoral battle, for the first time in the history of Albanian pluralism, will not be a battle between political forces to take power, but a battle between the Democratic Party (PD) and other political forces (mainly the new ones) to gain the monopoly of the opposition.
As I have clarified in another article, Berisha made a bad deal with Rama over the electoral code, precisely considering this fact.
He accepted that Rama would be advantaged by the closed-list system in 1/3 of the seats only on the premise that this would harm his true opponents, i.e., the new political forces.
He knows it is impossible for him to win the majority given the current state of PD, with the house arrest that could even push him out of parliament, with Ilir Meta in prison and unable to add votes to the opposition pool, and with a divided PD in fragments and without any motivation or projection for power.
Berisha’s goal is to maintain the monopoly of the opposition in parliament, even at the cost of shrinking the opposition’s historical share of seats.
On the other hand, the new political forces know they will not be able to take power in these elections. As a good connoisseur of Albania’s electoral terrain, I confidently say that the only district where there is still room for ideas or new forces is Tirana and perhaps Durrës, simply because the vote for new forces must be freed from financial constraints and power chains. The capital and to some extent Durrës have a market of free voters—professionals from various fields, small or medium entrepreneurs, students, and young people who can afford not to trade their vote but to encourage change.
This voter category is also interested in change, hoping that the distribution of capital will be more proportional in the future, and that all the spoils and public goods will not be shared among 5-6 specific individuals who today are labeled as oligarchs.
Therefore, to achieve victory nationwide, the new forces must first shake Tirana, motivate all the above groups to vote on Sunday, and hopefully Tirana will produce, at worst, 1-2 and at best 5-7 mandates for the new political forces.
Since most of the electorate in Albania is under patronage control—organizationally, economically, and politically—it becomes very difficult or impossible to penetrate their votes, at least not in these elections and not before Rama shows signs of weakness that will then shake the foundations of the system he has built.
Given that the chances of the new forces winning are zero and they know this, their natural opponent is not PS and Rama, whom they know will be back in power after the elections, but PD and PL.
Thus, both sides are clear about who their opponent is (PD and the new forces), so it is no surprise that the new forces today support SPAK as their natural ally helping to weaken the opponent by arresting and prosecuting him because this weakens him electorally and increases their chances of entering parliament.
I agree with Bushati that SPAK is selective and has sometimes shown double standards, but I do not agree with him that this is helping the installation of dictatorship or autocracy in the country.
The arrest of Meta or the house arrest of Berisha are disturbing images for Rama first of all, who projects himself in those images. There is no politician in Albania today who wishes or works to put his political opponent in jail because he knows that standard will fall on his head sooner or later.
On the contrary, I think SPAK’s current actions will help create a more pluralistic climate in the future that will enable the improvement of the electoral offer and the strengthening of the political offer in the country.
It is true that Rama will create a supermajority in these elections (I think he will get over 95 deputies), but on the other hand, these will be the last elections he wins. After these elections, PD and PL will completely dissolve or be essentially crippled, and finally the next confrontation of PS will not be with the past but with the future, a confrontation PS is likely to lose, and the cycle of reform or total destruction of that party will begin. This will bring a period of frequent political rotations but in the end governance will have absolutely different and more favorable standards for citizens.
What is demanded today from the new political forces is not forgiveness if Rama wins, because he will win, but honesty with voters and Albanians in their electoral goals and better organizational and ideological preparation.
New parties must show different models of leadership than PD and PS, which today are “one man shows,” with marked lack of democracy and no space for the membership.
If we look carefully, the same leadership model is applied today even to the new forces, and this is not good news for them, because even if outwardly indifferent, the Albanian voter is a very good reader of political reality. If you have the form of your opponent when you are young, chances are you will become like him or worse when you grow up.
Therefore, when you do not have financial resources equal to your opponent, when you do not have the electoral engine your opponent has, when you do not have the tradition of power and all the debts towards it that it carries, the only weapon that remains effective is honesty, internal democracy, and argument, three elements missing in the market of new parties.
Besjan Pesha është një studiues i shkencave politike dhe njohës i mirë i politikës në rajonin e Ballkanit. Ai ka mbaruar Masterin për Shkenca Politike pranë Universitetit të Tiranës dhe ka një eksperiencë të gjatë si aktivist i shoqërisë civile, duke filluar me themelimin e Lëvizjes Mjaft e më pas me themelimin e Nismës Thurje.
Besjani gjithashtu ka një eksperiencë në politikën aktive si edhe në qeverisje ku ka shërbyer në disa pozicione të rëndësishme përgjatë viteve 2007-2013.
Së fundmi ai punon si konsulent politik në rajon dhe gjatë kohës së lirë kontribuon për shteg.org.