The Albanian Institute of Statistics (INSTAT) published on June 28 the results of the 2023 Census, the data of which suggest contradictory figures regarding the real demand for housing purchases in relation to the number of apartments built each year.
The population of Albania in 2011 was 2.82 million inhabitants, organized into 722 thousand households, which were accommodated in 706 thousand dwellings. The average number of members per family in this period was 3.9.
According to the 2023 National Risk Assessment Report updated by the Financial Intelligence Agency, construction is the main sector where dirty money is laundered.
“The economic sectors most susceptible to money laundering are the real estate sector, construction, trade, the telephone services sector (Call Center) and consultancy in the economic and legal fields,” the report states.
Data processed by the Financial Intelligence Agency over the last 3 years shows that the majority of dirty money originates from criminal money generated outside Albania.
“From the cross-checking of data from relevant institutions, it results that crime committed abroad prevails over domestic crime in terms of the creation of criminal assets. It turns out that the seven main groups of crimes generating criminal income are: production, cultivation and trafficking of narcotics, criminal offenses in the field of taxes and customs, organized crime, corruption and abuse of office, forgery, fraud and theft of property.”
From the data reported for 2023 in the annual report of the Financial Intelligence Agency, it results that construction companies and real estate agents have reported only one suspicious case in the field of money laundering.
| year | Total number | Inhabited | Uninhabited |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 1 008 243 | 706 046 | 218 514 |
| 2023 | 1 082 529 | 726 325 | 356 204 |
‘Stock’ apartments, palaces dominate
The high-density apartment building model is best represented by the capital. Although the number of residents for the Municipality of Tirana has increased by an average of 3,400 inhabitants per year, or about 40 thousand more over the last 12 years, data suggests that in Tirana, permits have been issued to build approximately 75 thousand more apartments than the real need for family accommodation.
| year | Population | |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 557 422 | |
| 2023 | 598 176 | |
| Increasing | 40 754 | |
| on the average | 3,396 new residents per year at the municipal level |
According to data resulting from the Census, the highest number of uninhabited housing typologies is apartment buildings with 170 thousand empty premises, followed by individual dwellings with 148 thousand and 37 thousand detached houses.
According to indirect estimates combined with Census data and electricity consumption data, around 51,000 houses in the capital are uninhabited, while construction areas continue to increase.
According to projections, if the capital’s residents continue their normal population growth trend, uninhabited homes would take at least 45 years to clear the stock.
Construction, the main promoter of the economy
Last year, the construction sector, together with the real estate market, had the main weight in economic growth, accounting for nearly half of the contribution compared to the rest provided by 9 other branches of the economy.
In real terms, the economy produced 21.32 billion euros last year, of which construction activity together with real estate sales produced 3.72 billion euros, or 17.5% of the country’s GDP.
According to official data, the volume of construction over the last 12 years based on granted permits amounts to 12.3 million square meters, of which 9.2 million or 75% were obtained from the Tirana region. Historical INSTAT data shows that after 2017, the area of granted construction permits in Tirana has doubled, tripling during 2022 and 2023.
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 320 | 495 | 666 | 4 | 141 | 395 | 706 | 1049 | 948 | 1438 | 1808 | 1242 |
Based on the volume given for construction over the last two years, the number of residential spaces in the capital is projected to increase by at least 30 thousand more units, which will have a value in the real estate market of at least 3.6 billion euros.
Only 40% of the construction sector was financed by banks
Official statistics reported by banks show that only 38% of real estate construction and sales a year ago were made possible by bank loans.
The loan to support the home purchase market for 2023 was 1 billion euros, divided into 517 million euros for businesses that have purchased real estate and 483 million euros for individuals. In total, real estate activity produced 1.36 billion euros of value in the economy last year, of which 360 million euros are not explained by bank financing.
The biggest difference is in construction, where it turns out that companies in this sector have been financed with a total of 394 million euros, while they have produced a value of 2.36 billion euros. Approximately 2 billion euros produced by this sector have no bank financing and, if we deduct the 1.3 billion euros of government infrastructure investments, a total of 1 billion euros are invested in this sector, which do not justify the source of origin.
According to experts, the informal economy is not reflected in national accounts, so the differences may be related to money whose origin is not explained, but which passes freely through formal channels, such as banks or companies that declare unjustified income. However, factors of real economic growth that are not justified by the fundamentals suggest that the informal economy is even higher, at a value of one third of national output, according to World Bank estimates, a figure that would constitute a value of 7 billion euros.
Ola Xama është gazetare në fushën e ekonomisë prej 15 vitesh, e fokusuar së fundi në zhanrin e analizave dhe investigimeve. Është autore e emisionit investigativ ‘Kronos’ në MCN Tv, dhe më parë ka punuar si gazetare në fushën e ekonomisë në televizionet Euronews Albania, Klan Tv dhe Vizion Plus. Është autore e dhjetra investigimeve që lidhen me financat, pastrimin e parave dhe abuzimet e autoriteve publike me qytetarët. Është diplomuar pranë Universitetit të Tiranës në degën Gazetari dhe ka përfunduar studimet master në të njëjtën degë.